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LEGO Investment Calculator
See how much your LEGO set could be worth in 5, 10, or 20 years — and compare it against the S&P 500 and gold, using data from the Higher School of Economics 2022 study of retired LEGO sets.
Based on historical retired-set performance. Future returns vary with supply, demand, and set condition. Seals lost = roughly 30–50% value lost.
How LEGO compares after 5 years
Starting value: $200
LEGO (selected tier)
11.0% / year
$337
S&P 500
10.0% / year
$322
Gold
6.5% / year
$274
Cash (no appreciation)
0.0% / year
$200
LEGO outperforms the S&P 500 by $15 and gold by $63 over 5 years — on the selected tier.
Methodology
- LEGO base rate (11% annual): From the Higher School of Economics 2022 study analyzing 2,322 retired LEGO sets across 1987–2015. This is the average nominal return before transaction costs.
- Tier multipliers: Derived from BrickEconomy and BrickLink historical sold data by theme. UCS Star Wars, Modular Buildings, and Ideas consistently beat the baseline; standard City and Friends trail it.
- S&P 500 (10% annual): Long-term nominal return including dividends, 1926–2025.
- Gold (6.5% annual): Long-term nominal return in USD, 1971–2025.
- Assumptions: Set is kept sealed in box. Opening a set typically destroys 30–50% of its resale value.
Frequently asked questions
Does LEGO really appreciate 11% per year?
On average across retired sets — yes. The HSE 2022 study found 11% nominal annual returns over 28 years, beating both the S&P 500 and gold on a risk-adjusted basis. But it's an average: individual sets range from –20% to +600%.
Which LEGO sets appreciate fastest?
UCS Star Wars (especially flagship sets like the Millennium Falcon, Death Star, and Imperial Star Destroyer), LEGO Ideas sets, and Modular Buildings consistently lead. These are the sets in the upper tiers of this calculator.
What happens to the value if I open the set?
Expect a 30–50% drop in resale value the moment you break the seal, even if every piece stays pristine. Sealed-box value comes from scarcity plus the assurance that the set is complete and authentic. Once opened, buyers discount heavily.
How do I track my portfolio over time?
Download BrickLens on iOS — add sets to your portfolio and see real-time market values across BrickLink, eBay, and BrickOwl, plus price-history charts and alerts.